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Conference Tutorial
Systems Thinking and Simulation Modeling for Complex Strategic Problems
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Yaman Barlas, Ph.D. |
Tel: +90-212-359 7073Abstract
This tutorial attempts to provide a state-of-the art overview of systems thinking and dynamic feedback simulation, its applications, its potential, and some selected theoretical/methodological research problems. We first provide a birief discussion of the essentials of systems thinking (theory, philosophy) and what is meant by “systemic” strategic problems. We discuss the notion of “systemic complexity.” We then define “dynamic feedback” problems and the role of systemic feedback modeling and simulation (ie System Dynamics methodology) in tackling such strategic problems. We present the main concepts, methods and state of the art tools of System Dynamics modeling and simulation. We provide an overview of some selected models and typical (strategic management) applications, as well as alternative implementation methods/media. Finally, we mention some current research problems: For instance, evidence/experiments show that systemic misperceptions, biases and omissions are typical in decision making in a dynamic feedback environment and that we are poor decision-makers in such environments. It is possible to carry out controlled lab experiments on interactive simulators to investigate the sources of such dysfunctional decision behavior. We illustrate in general that it is possible to do research on a wide range of interesting dynamic decision-theoretic research questions by using interactive simulation models as controlled experimental platforms (management laboratories).
Biography
Yaman Barlas received his B.S., M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Upon receiving his Ph.D. from Georgia Institute of Technology in 1985, he joined Miami University of Ohio, department of Systems Analysis, and he was tenured in 1990. He returned to Boğaziçi University in Istanbul in 1993, where he is currently working as a professor and Chair of Industrial Engineering and directing the SESDYN research laboratory (http://www.ie.boun.edu.tr/labs/sesdyn/). His interest areas are validation of simulation models, system dynamics methodology, modeling/analysis of socio-economic problems and simulation as a learning/training platform. Prof. Barlas teaches simulation, system dynamics, dynamics of socio-economic systems and advanced dynamic systems modeling. He has several teaching excellence awards. He is a founding member and a former President of the System Dynamics Society, editor of System Dynamics Review for short articles and an invited Honorary Editor of the Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems.
